Journal Description
Climate
Climate
is a scientific, peer-reviewed, open access journal of climate science published online monthly by MDPI. The American Society of Adaptation Professionals (ASAP) is affiliated with Climate and its members receive discounts on the article processing charges.
- Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
- High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, ESCI (Web of Science), GeoRef, AGRIS, and other databases.
- Journal Rank: CiteScore - Q2 (Atmospheric Science)
- Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 19.7 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 3.4 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the second half of 2023).
- Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.
Impact Factor:
3.7 (2022);
5-Year Impact Factor:
3.6 (2022)
Latest Articles
Climate Risks and Stock Market Volatility over a Century in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of South Africa
Climate 2024, 12(5), 68; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050068 - 8 May 2024
Abstract
Because climate change broadcasts a large aggregate risk to the overall macroeconomy and the global financial system, we investigate how a temperature anomaly and/or its volatility affect the accuracy of forecasts of stock return volatility. To this end, we do not apply only
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Because climate change broadcasts a large aggregate risk to the overall macroeconomy and the global financial system, we investigate how a temperature anomaly and/or its volatility affect the accuracy of forecasts of stock return volatility. To this end, we do not apply only the classical GARCH and GARCHX models, but rather we apply newly proposed model-free prediction methods, and use GARCH-NoVaS and GARCHX-NoVaS models to compute volatility predictions. These two models are based on a normalizing and variance-stabilizing transformation (NoVaS transformation) and are guided by a so-called model-free prediction principle. Applying the new models to data for South Africa, we find that climate-related information is helpful in forecasting stock return volatility. Moreover, the novel model-free prediction method can incorporate such exogenous information better than the classical GARCH approach, as revealed by the the squared prediction errors. More importantly, the forecast comparison test reveals that the advantage of applying exogenous information related to climate risks in prediction of the South African stock return volatility is significant over a century of monthly data (February 1910–February 2023). Our findings have important implications for academics, investors, and policymakers.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Risks)
Open AccessReview
Two Decades of Integrated Flood Management: Status, Barriers, and Strategies
by
Neil S. Grigg
Climate 2024, 12(5), 67; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050067 - 8 May 2024
Abstract
Losses from flood disasters are increasing globally due to climate-driven forces and human factors such as migration and land use changes. The risks of such floods involve multiple factors and stakeholders, and frameworks for integrated approaches have attracted a global community of experts.
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Losses from flood disasters are increasing globally due to climate-driven forces and human factors such as migration and land use changes. The risks of such floods involve multiple factors and stakeholders, and frameworks for integrated approaches have attracted a global community of experts. The paper reviews the knowledge base for integrated flood risk management frameworks, including more than twenty bibliometric reviews of their elements. The knowledge base illustrates how integrated strategies for the reduction of flood risk are required at different scales and involve responses ranging from climate and weather studies to the construction of infrastructure, as well as collective action for community resilience. The Integrated Flood Management framework of the Associated Programme on Flood Management of the World Meteorological Organization was developed more than twenty years ago and is explained in some detail, including how it fits within the Integrated Water Resources Management concept that is managed by the Global Water Partnership. The paper reviews the alignment of the two approaches and how they can be used in tandem to reduce flood losses. Success of both integrated management approaches depends on governance and institutional capacity as well as technological advances. The knowledge base for flood risk management indicates how technologies are advancing, while more attention must be paid to social and environmental concerns, as well as government measures to increase participation, awareness, and preparedness. Ultimately, integrated flood management will involve solutions tailored for individual situations, and implementation may be slow, such that perseverance and political commitment will be needed.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances of Flood Risk Assessment and Management)
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Open AccessArticle
Developing a Drought Resilience Matrix to Evaluate Water Supply Alternatives
by
Krystal Okpa, Zeinab Farahmandfar and Masoud Negahban-Azar
Climate 2024, 12(5), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12050066 - 7 May 2024
Abstract
Cities around the world are facing increased sensitivity to drought effects. Climate-change-induced drought affects not only the natural hydrology of the broad macroclimate but also those in the urban microclimates. The increasing frequency and duration of droughts are creating challenges for urban water
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Cities around the world are facing increased sensitivity to drought effects. Climate-change-induced drought affects not only the natural hydrology of the broad macroclimate but also those in the urban microclimates. The increasing frequency and duration of droughts are creating challenges for urban water utilities to convey water through distribution systems to customers reliably and consistently. This has led many urban areas like San Francisco, California, to search for unique alternative water supply projects to help bolster the drought resilience of the coupled human and natural water system. This paper focuses on applying the features of resilience (i.e., plan, adapt, absorb, and recover) through a drought resilience matrix to water supply alternatives to analyze how the addition of these projects would increase the overall water system’s drought resilience. San Francisco, California, was used as the case study to test the use of this matrix. Three portfolios (modifying existing supply, recycling, and desalination, as well as local approaches) were created and tested in the matrix. Each portfolio is composed of various alternative water supply projects that the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) is considering for implementation. Results concluded that the local approaches portfolio provided the most drought resilience, with the recycling and desalination portfolio providing the least resilience. The study approach and the presented findings will provide guidance to water utility professionals in supply planning to enhance drought resilience.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coping with Flooding and Drought)
Open AccessArticle
A Survey of African Weather and Climate Extremes
by
Mark R. Jury
Climate 2024, 12(5), 65; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050065 - 5 May 2024
Abstract
A survey of African weather and climate extremes in the period 1970–2023 reveals spatial and temporal patterns of intense dry and wet spells, associated with meteorological conditions and consequences. Seasonal wind storms occur along coasts facing the Mozambique Channel, the Gulf of Guinea,
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A survey of African weather and climate extremes in the period 1970–2023 reveals spatial and temporal patterns of intense dry and wet spells, associated with meteorological conditions and consequences. Seasonal wind storms occur along coasts facing the Mozambique Channel, the Gulf of Guinea, the Mediterranean, and the Southern Ocean. Desiccating evaporation is found along the edge of the Sahara and Kalahari Deserts, as well as in lowland subtropical river valleys. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and net outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) reflect precipitation–evaporation balance and guide regional evaluation. Temporal fluctuations are dominated by inter-decadal oscillations and drying/moistening trends over Southeast/West Africa, respectively. Localized floods and droughts are frequent, but widespread impacts are rare, suggesting that the transfer of resources from surplus to deficit regions is possible. Various case studies focus on (i) tropical cyclone impacts, (ii) monsoon moisture flux, and (iii) coastal upwelling. African communities have become resilient in the face of extreme weather and have shown that adaptation is possible, but further mitigating efforts are needed so that macro-economic progress does not come with harmful secondary consequences.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydroclimate Dynamics and Extreme Weather Events in Africa)
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Open AccessArticle
Evapotranspiration Analysis in Central Italy: A Combined Trend and Clustering Approach
by
Fabio Di Nunno, Nazzareno Diodato, Gianni Bellocchi, Carla Tricarico, Giovanni de Marinis and Francesco Granata
Climate 2024, 12(5), 64; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050064 - 3 May 2024
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly influencing the water cycle, hindering the effective management of water resources in various sectors. Lazio, central Italy, exhibits a wide range of climatic conditions, stretching from the Tyrrhenian coast to the Apennines. This study assessed a crucial aspect of
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Climate change is increasingly influencing the water cycle, hindering the effective management of water resources in various sectors. Lazio, central Italy, exhibits a wide range of climatic conditions, stretching from the Tyrrhenian coast to the Apennines. This study assessed a crucial aspect of climate change, focusing specifically on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its associated hydrological variables. The seasonal Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to assess trends in gridded data. The K-means algorithm was then applied to divide Lazio into four homogeneous regions (clusters), each characterized by distinct trends in hydrological variables. The analysis revealed statistically significant increasing trends (p ≤ 0.01) in temperature, solar radiation, and ETo, with more marked effects observed in the coastal and hilly clusters. In contrast, statistically significant decreasing trends (p ≤ 0.01) were observed for relative humidity, while no statistically significant trends (p > 0.01) were observed for precipitation. This study’s methodology, combining trend analysis and clustering, provides a comprehensive view of ETo dynamics in Lazio, aiding in pattern recognition and identifying regions with similar trends.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Regional Special Issue: Climate Change in Italy)
Open AccessArticle
Investigating Road Ice Formation Mechanisms Using Road Weather Information System (RWIS) Observations
by
Menglin Jin and Douglas G. McBroom
Climate 2024, 12(5), 63; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050063 - 2 May 2024
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Ice formation on roads leads to a higher incidence of accidents and increases winter de-icing/anti-icing costs. This study analyzed 3 years (2019–2021) of Road Weather Information System (RWIS) sub-hourly measurements collected by the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) to understand the first-order factors
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Ice formation on roads leads to a higher incidence of accidents and increases winter de-icing/anti-icing costs. This study analyzed 3 years (2019–2021) of Road Weather Information System (RWIS) sub-hourly measurements collected by the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) to understand the first-order factors of road ice formation and its mechanisms. First, road ice is formed only when the road pavement surface temperature is equal to or below the freezing point (i.e., 32 °F (i.e., 0 °C)), while the corresponding 2 m air temperature could be above 32 °F. Nevertheless, when the road pavement was below 32 °F ice often did not form on the roads. Therefore, one challenge is to know under what conditions road ice forms. Second, the pavement surface temperature is critical for road ice formation. The clear road (i.e., with no ice or snow) surface pavement temperature is generally warmer than the air temperature during both day and night. This feature is different from a natural land surface, where the land skin temperature is lower than the air temperature on cloud-free nights due to radiative cooling. Third, subsurface temperature, measured using a RWIS subsurface sensor below a road surface, did not vary as much as the pavement temperature and, thus, may not be a good index for road ice formation. Fourth, urban heat island effects lead to black ice formation more frequently than roads located in other regions. Fifth, evaporative cooling from the water surface near a road segment further reduces the outlying air temperature, a mechanism that increases heat loss for bridges or lake-side roads in addition to radiative cooling. Additionally, mechanical lifting via mountains and hills is also an efficient mechanism that makes the air condense and, consequently, form ice on the roads. Forecasting road ice formation is in high demand for road safety. These observed features may help to develop a road ice physical model consisting of functions of hyper-local weather conditions, local domain knowledge, the road texture, and geographical environment.
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Open AccessArticle
Perception and Reality: How the Depths of the High Waters in Venice Apparently Change with the Reference System
by
Dario Camuffo
Climate 2024, 12(5), 62; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050062 - 1 May 2024
Abstract
Over the centuries, the depths of the most severe storm surges that have flooded Venice have been measured using different reference frames, i.e., related to the algae belt (CM), mean sea level (MSL), local land (ZMPS), large-scale leveling (IGM), and satellite altimetry (SA).
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Over the centuries, the depths of the most severe storm surges that have flooded Venice have been measured using different reference frames, i.e., related to the algae belt (CM), mean sea level (MSL), local land (ZMPS), large-scale leveling (IGM), and satellite altimetry (SA). Some reference frames, i.e., IGM and SA, are absolute, while the others are relative and represent two different physical points of view, i.e., CM and MSL refer to the sea that is rising and ZMPS refers to the land that is subsiding. The perceptions derived from the different systems are contradictory. This paper discusses and compares surges from 1821 to 2021 measured with these frames, also including the commemorative plaques that report the flood depths on walls in Venice. The paper explains the consequences of a change in frame and zero reference, and it transforms the flooding depths from the original systems to make them homogeneous. The severity of flooding changes in terms of rating with the choice of frame. In the 19th century, five storm surges exceeded the famous level of 1966 and, if they were to recur today or in the future, the sea level rise and the local land subsidence that have occurred in the meantime would greatly exacerbate the situation.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)
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Open AccessArticle
A Critical Analysis of Morocco’s Green Hydrogen Roadmap: A Modelling Approach to Assess Country Readiness from the Energy Trilemma Perspective
by
Amandine Caillard, Rudolf Yeganyan, Carla Cannone, Fernando Plazas-Niño and Mark Howells
Climate 2024, 12(5), 61; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050061 - 29 Apr 2024
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Morocco, despite its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, which made up 68% of electricity generation in 2020, has recognised its significant renewable energy potential. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment is to reduce emissions by 45.5% from baseline levels with international assistance
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Morocco, despite its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, which made up 68% of electricity generation in 2020, has recognised its significant renewable energy potential. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment is to reduce emissions by 45.5% from baseline levels with international assistance and abstain from constructing new coal plants. Moreover, the Green Hydrogen Roadmap aims to export 10 TWh of green hydrogen by 2030, as well as use it for local electricity storage. This paper critically analyses this Roadmap and Morocco’s readiness to reach its ambitious targets, focusing specifically on an energy trilemma perspective and using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source energy Modelling System) for energy modelling. The results reveal that the NDC scenario is only marginally more expensive than the least-cost scenario, at around 1.3% (approximately USD 375 million), and facilitates a 23.32% emission reduction by 2050. An important note is the continued reliance on existing coal power plants across all scenarios, which challenges both energy security and emissions. The assessment of the Green Hydrogen Scenarios highlights that it could be too costly for the Moroccan government to fund the Green Hydrogen Roadmap at this scale, which leads to increased imports of polluting fossil fuels for cost reduction. In fact, the emission levels are 39% higher in the green hydrogen exports scenario than in the least-cost scenario. Given these findings, it is recommended that the Green Hydrogen Roadmap be re-evaluated, with a suggestion for a postponement and reduction in scope.
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Open AccessSystematic Review
Conceptualising the Link between Citizen Science and Climate Governance: A Systematic Review
by
Gloria Freschi, Marialuisa Menegatto and Adriano Zamperini
Climate 2024, 12(5), 60; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050060 - 25 Apr 2024
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Multilevel and decentralised governance approaches involving different social actors are increasingly relevant to collectively tackling climate-induced vulnerabilities. Among emergent governance experimentations, citizen science (CS) is a transversal scientific practice characterised by the involvement of citizens in various phases of the scientific process. We
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Multilevel and decentralised governance approaches involving different social actors are increasingly relevant to collectively tackling climate-induced vulnerabilities. Among emergent governance experimentations, citizen science (CS) is a transversal scientific practice characterised by the involvement of citizens in various phases of the scientific process. We performed a PRISMA systematic review of the scientific literature in order to conceptualise the interface between CS and climate governance. The included 44 studies were coded following the thematic analysis method. Information about temporal and geographical distribution, main research designs and methods, climate governance domains and levels of analysis was extracted. Among the most significant results, we stress the existence of a two-way link between CS and climate governance: CS beyond data gathering can facilitate climate change adaptation—namely, counteracting disaster risk, food insecurity and mental health distress due to changing climate, promoting health and wellbeing, and environmental conservation—until systemic changes are made. Conversely, inclusive governance structures and processes may provide support to initiate CS projects. We also discuss the role of psychosocial and justice issues—as well as digital CS—throughout the selected literature, and the implications for future lines of research and policy.
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Open AccessArticle
The Effectiveness of Climate Adaptation Finance and Readiness on Vulnerability in African Economies
by
Purity Maina and Anett Parádi-Dolgos
Climate 2024, 12(5), 59; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050059 - 24 Apr 2024
Abstract
Addressing climate vulnerability remains a priority for economies globally. This study used the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) methodology to investigate the impact of adaptation financing on climate vulnerability. This analysis examined 52 African countries from 2012 to 2021 while considering their climate adaptation
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Addressing climate vulnerability remains a priority for economies globally. This study used the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) methodology to investigate the impact of adaptation financing on climate vulnerability. This analysis examined 52 African countries from 2012 to 2021 while considering their climate adaptation readiness. The impact was also assessed based on the Human Development Index (HDI) categories to reflect different levels of development. The findings showed that adaptation finance considerably influenced climate vulnerability reduction in Africa, particularly in nations with a moderate HDI. However, most countries still need higher levels of adaptation financing, resulting in a small impact on vulnerability reduction. Furthermore, the impact of readiness measures differed by HDI category. Economic and social climate readiness strongly impacted climate vulnerability in high-HDI nations, but governance preparedness was more critical in low-HDI countries. Based on the empirical facts, two policy proposals emerge. First, it is critical to reconsider the distribution of adaptation financing to reduce disparities and effectively alleviate climate vulnerability. Moreover, African economies should consider implementing innovative localized financing mechanisms to mobilize extra adaptation finance. Second, African governments should customize climate readiness interventions based on their HDI levels to improve the achievement of a positive impact on climate vulnerability.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)
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Open AccessArticle
Adapting to Climate Change in Vulnerable Areas: Farmers’ Perceptions in the Punjab, Pakistan
by
Faisal Nadeem, Brent Jacobs and Dana Cordell
Climate 2024, 12(5), 58; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050058 - 24 Apr 2024
Abstract
Climate variability and change pose a substantial threat to agricultural practices and livelihoods in the Punjab province of Pakistan, a region of agricultural significance in South Asia. In particular, farmers residing in vulnerable parts of Punjab will be affected by a combination of
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Climate variability and change pose a substantial threat to agricultural practices and livelihoods in the Punjab province of Pakistan, a region of agricultural significance in South Asia. In particular, farmers residing in vulnerable parts of Punjab will be affected by a combination of high exposure to the impacts of climate events, the innate sensitivity of agricultural systems, and constraints on farmers’ adaptive capacity. The situation requires closer engagement with vulnerable farming communities of Punjab to assess their vulnerability and build their capacity for adaptation actions. Through qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with farmers from four highly vulnerable districts of Punjab (Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh, Chakwal, Dera Ghazi Khan), we explored farmers’ perceptions of climate change, their adaptation strategies, and enablers and limitations on adaptation options imposed by the enabling environment. We found issues around water governance, knowledge exchange, and market arrangements for crops as key limitations to farmers’ local adaptation action in highly resource-constrained settings. Moreover, the results indicated the need to address equity issues for small-scale compared to large-scale farmers. Farmers valued their experience-based local knowledge and peer-to-peer sharing networks as pivotal resources in pursuit of their practice-based learning. The research findings highlighted the necessity of directed institutional assistance to empower adaptation by vulnerable small-scale farmers. This study emphasizes the critical significance of the enabling environment that facilitates vulnerable farmers to implement adaptation strategies, thereby promoting the adoption of Vulnerable-Smart Agriculture.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Changing Rainfall Patterns and Food Insecurity: Vulnerable Regions and Adaptation Strategies)
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Open AccessArticle
Climate Change in Rural Australia: Natural Hazard Preparedness and Recovery Needs of a Rural Community
by
Caitlin E. Pike, Amy D. Lykins, Warren Bartik, Phillip J. Tully and Suzanne M. Cosh
Climate 2024, 12(5), 57; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12050057 - 23 Apr 2024
Abstract
Climate change has resulted in a worldwide increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events including bushfires. Previous research has shown that communities often do not engage in disaster preparedness, even when sufficient education and resources are provided. With the projected increase
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Climate change has resulted in a worldwide increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events including bushfires. Previous research has shown that communities often do not engage in disaster preparedness, even when sufficient education and resources are provided. With the projected increase in natural disasters, preparedness is paramount, and more research is needed to gain an understanding into what impacts community preparedness in the face of climate change. This study investigated one rural Australian community’s preparedness for the 2019–2020 bushfires. Thirteen Australian adults who resided within a small rural community in New South Wales during the 2019–2020 bushfires participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Participants reported being unprepared for the 2019–2020 bushfires and that the community has started to prepare for future bushfires. However, they also described a belief in ‘climate cycles’ rather than climate change, limiting engagement in preparedness for future hazards. Participants also reported that they did not talk about the 2019–2020 bushfires, although described experiencing residual anxiety. Recommendations included support needed for rural communities to help with future preparedness efforts and mental health symptoms.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Climate Change Impacts in Australia)
Open AccessArticle
Characteristics of Foehn Wind in Urumqi, China, and Their Relationship with EI Niño and Extreme Heat Events in the Last 15 Years
by
Maoling Ayitikan, Xia Li, Yusufu Musha, Qing He, Shuting Li, Yuting Zhong and Kai Cheng
Climate 2024, 12(4), 56; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040056 - 19 Apr 2024
Abstract
Dry and hot Foehn wind weather often occurs in Urumqi, China, due to its canyon terrain. This directly impacts the lives and health of local people. Using surface meteorological variables (including the hourly wind, temperature, humidity, and pressure) measured in situ at the
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Dry and hot Foehn wind weather often occurs in Urumqi, China, due to its canyon terrain. This directly impacts the lives and health of local people. Using surface meteorological variables (including the hourly wind, temperature, humidity, and pressure) measured in situ at the Urumqi Meteorological Station and ERA5 reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the past 15 years (2008–2022), the characteristics of Foehn wind and their relationship with EI Niño and extreme high-temperature events in Urumqi are analyzed. The results show that the annual distributions of Foehn wind present a fluctuating pattern, and the highest frequency occurred in 2015. Compared to the summer (July) and winter (February) seasons, Foehn wind occurs most frequently in spring (March, April, May) and autumn (September, October, and November). Daily variations in Foehn wind occur most frequently from 9:00 a.m. to 14:00 p.m. In particular, high levels are found at 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. in April and May. In 2011, 2012, and 2014, the average wind speed of FW exceeded 6 m/s, and the lowest average wind speed was 3.8 m/s in 2021. The temperature and relative humidity changes (ΔT and ΔRH) caused by Foehn wind are the most significant in winter and when Foehn wind begins to occur. The high-temperature hours related to Foehn wind weather in Urumqi represented 25% of the total in the past 15 years. During the EI Niño period, the amount of Foehn wind in Urumqi significantly increased; The correlation coefficient beteewn slide anomaly of Foehn days and the Oceanic Niño Index is as high as 0.71. Specifically, Foehn wind activity aggravates extreme high-temperature events. This study provides indications for Foehn wind weather forecasting in Urumqi.
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(This article belongs to the Topic Advances in Multi-Scale Geographic Environmental Monitoring: Theory, Methodology and Applications)
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Open AccessArticle
Visualising the Complexity of Drought: A Network Analysis Based on the Water Resilience Assessment Framework and the Actor-Relational Approach
by
Joachim Vercruysse, Greet Deruyter, Renaat De Sutter and Luuk Boelens
Climate 2024, 12(4), 55; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040055 - 18 Apr 2024
Abstract
This paper discusses the increasing severity of droughts due to climate change. It emphasises the complexity of defining drought and the diverse perspectives among stakeholders. Lots of stakeholders with unclear responsibilities are involved, which can lead to uncertainty and indecisiveness in addressing the
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This paper discusses the increasing severity of droughts due to climate change. It emphasises the complexity of defining drought and the diverse perspectives among stakeholders. Lots of stakeholders with unclear responsibilities are involved, which can lead to uncertainty and indecisiveness in addressing the issue. To tackle this, the present paper proposes a methodology to dissect drought systems and reveal the intricate relationships between their components. This approach combines a comprehensive definition of drought with the “Water Resilience Assessment Framework” and an “Actor-Relational Approach”, visualised through network analysis. The methodology was applied to a case study situated in the Leie Basin of Flanders, Belgium. By employing this strategy, policymakers and mediators can gain a deeper understanding of drought, identify its root causes, and prioritise necessary changes for more effective drought and water management.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coping with Flooding and Drought)
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Open AccessArticle
Using Calibrated Rainfall Forecasts and Observed Rainfall to Produce Probabilistic Meteorological Drought Forecasts
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Zhi-Weng Chua, Yuriy Kuleshov and Jessica Bhardwaj
Climate 2024, 12(4), 54; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040054 - 10 Apr 2024
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Most existing drought forecast systems rely only on observed or forecast rainfall, losing valuable context gained from considering both. The lack of a direct link between observed and forecast rainfall reduces the physical consistency of a system, motivating the development of a methodology
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Most existing drought forecast systems rely only on observed or forecast rainfall, losing valuable context gained from considering both. The lack of a direct link between observed and forecast rainfall reduces the physical consistency of a system, motivating the development of a methodology that can directly link the two. The methodology developed in this study allows the comparison of the calibrated ensemble forecasts of rainfall totals from a dynamical climate model to observed rainfall deficiencies from a gridded rainfall analysis. The methodology is used to create a probabilistic product that forecasts the chance of entering meteorological drought, with lead times of one month (monthly forecast) and three months (seasonal forecast). Existing deficiency areas are included to facilitate analysis of how these areas are forecast to change. The performance of the developed methodology was verified using Percent Correct (PC), Brier Score (BS), and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistics. Analysis of the forecast plots was also completed visually. Forecast performance for areas with existing deficiencies as well as for non-deficiency areas was promising (PC rates of >79% and >97%, respectively). Although PC rates for observed deficiencies were low across most months, the mean forecast probability for these areas was 36%, indicating the system had value and outperformed climatology. A calibrated, coupled product like the one scoped in this study has not been explored and we note that it could be an invaluable tool for quantifying meteorological drought onset and persistence in Australia.
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Open AccessReview
Key Innovations in Financing Nature-Based Solutions for Coastal Adaptation
by
Fausto Favero and Jochen Hinkel
Climate 2024, 12(4), 53; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040053 - 9 Apr 2024
Abstract
The implementation of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for coastal adaptation to climate change is limited by a well-documented lack of finance. Scholars agree that financial innovation represents a solution to this problem, particularly due to its potential for mobilising private investments. It remains unclear
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The implementation of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for coastal adaptation to climate change is limited by a well-documented lack of finance. Scholars agree that financial innovation represents a solution to this problem, particularly due to its potential for mobilising private investments. It remains unclear however how exactly innovative solutions address the specific barriers found in NBS implementation and, given the distinctive local characteristics of NBSs, to what extent successful innovations can be replicated in other locations. This study addresses this issue by reviewing the literature and case studies of innovative financial solutions currently implemented in NBS projects, highlighting which financial barriers these arrangements address and which contextual conditions affect their applicability. We find that there is no “low-hanging fruit” in upscaling finance in NBSs through financial innovation. Innovative solutions are nevertheless expected to become more accessible with the increase in NBS project sizes, the increased availability of data on NBS performance, and the establishment of supportive policy frameworks. The flow of finance into NBS projects can be further enhanced through the external support of both public (de-risking and regulation) and private actors (financial expertise).
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Adaptation Costs and Finance)
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Open AccessArticle
Unlocking Weather Observations at Puerto Madryn-Patagonia, Argentina, 1902–1915
by
Susan Gabriela Lakkis, Pablo O. Canziani and Adrián E. Yuchechen
Climate 2024, 12(4), 52; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040052 - 9 Apr 2024
Cited by 1
Abstract
The recovery of early records of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures; pressure; and relative humidity measurements in Puerto Madryn for the period 1902–1915 is presented. A careful evaluation of the quality of the data was performed using internal coherence, tolerance, and temporal consistency
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The recovery of early records of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures; pressure; and relative humidity measurements in Puerto Madryn for the period 1902–1915 is presented. A careful evaluation of the quality of the data was performed using internal coherence, tolerance, and temporal consistency tests. The monthly mean series of all the variables, constructed from daily raw data, were subject to several homogeneity tests, and only discontinuities in pressure and relative humidity were found. The homogenized monthly mean series were compared with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis series in annual and seasonal time steps. In addition, the trends of each variable were assessed using the Mann–Kendall procedure, and correlations between relative humidity and the other variables were examined. The results show a remarkably good agreement between the temperature measurements and reanalysis values with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.94. The raw data for minimum and maximum temperatures represent a very good upper and lower bound for the mean temperature values of both observational and reanalysis data. Agreement was found to be lower for relative humidity and pressure with the correlation coefficients being close to 0.6 in both cases. No trends were found for the variables. The correlation analysis of the humidity measurements with the other variables shows an inverse dependence of the temperatures and no relatedness with the pressure values.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)
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Open AccessArticle
Unlocking Weather Observations at the End of the World: Late-XIX and Early-XX Century Monthly Mean Temperature Climatology for Southern Patagonia
by
Pablo O. Canziani, S. Gabriela Lakkis, Adrián E. Yuchechen and Oscar Bonfilli
Climate 2024, 12(4), 51; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040051 - 9 Apr 2024
Abstract
A climate analysis of the monthly mean temperatures of Southern Patagonia during the late-XIXth and early-XXth centuries was carried out as part of the international data rescue Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) program partnership in Argentina, together with other data sources
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A climate analysis of the monthly mean temperatures of Southern Patagonia during the late-XIXth and early-XXth centuries was carried out as part of the international data rescue Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) program partnership in Argentina, together with other data sources with regional and global records. The data from these diverse sources were combined to carry out a study in the coastal region of Patagonia, including Tierra del Fuego, between 42° S and 55° S for 11 locations. Furthermore, HadSST monthly/seasonal fields during the period 1880–1920 were also used. Both mean monthly and seasonal temperature values and timeseries variability were considered. Their analysis shows consistent behavior within the study region and compared to Southern Hemisphere mean results, which are characterized by a warm late-XIX century and a cooler early-XX century. This is also in agreement with SST variability along the coasts of Patagonia and hemispheric records. A comparison with present-day observations, where available, also yields consistent behavior. Low-frequency variability, i.e., in periods longer than 3 years, during the study period is consistent with present variability. Trend estimates at Trelew and Rio Gallegos for the period 1901–2020 yield significant trends, consistent with hemispheric warming at their latitudes.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records)
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Open AccessArticle
Meta-Analysis and Ranking of the Most Effective Methane Reduction Strategies for Australia’s Beef and Dairy Sector
by
Merideth Kelliher, Diana Bogueva and Dora Marinova
Climate 2024, 12(4), 50; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040050 - 8 Apr 2024
Abstract
Although Australia remains committed to the Paris Agreement and to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, it was late in joining the 2021 Global Methane Pledge. Finding suitable methane (CH4) mitigation solutions for Australia’s livestock industry should be part of this journey.
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Although Australia remains committed to the Paris Agreement and to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, it was late in joining the 2021 Global Methane Pledge. Finding suitable methane (CH4) mitigation solutions for Australia’s livestock industry should be part of this journey. Based on a 2020–2023 systematic literature review and multicriteria decision approach, this study analyses the available strategies for the Australian beef and dairy sector under three scenarios: baseline, where all assessment criteria are equally weighted; climate emergency, with a significant emphasis on CH4 reduction for cattle in pasture and feedlot systems; and conservative, where priority is given to reducing costs. In total, 46 strategies from 27 academic publications were identified and classified as ‘Avoid’, ‘Shift’, or ‘Improve’ with respect to their impact on current CH4 emissions. The findings indicate that ‘Avoid’ strategies of conversion of agricultural land to wetlands, salt marshes, and tidal forest are most efficient in the climate emergency scenario, while the ‘Improve’ strategy of including CH4 production in the cattle breeding goals is the best for the conservative and baseline scenarios. A policy mix that encourages a wide range of strategies is required to ensure CH4 emission reductions and make Australia’s livestock industry more sustainable.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Climate Change Impacts in Australia)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia
by
Milton Speer, Joshua Hartigan and Lance M. Leslie
Climate 2024, 12(4), 49; https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/cli12040049 - 8 Apr 2024
Abstract
Flash droughts (FDs) are natural disasters that strike suddenly and intensify quickly. They occur almost anywhere, anytime of the year, and can have severe socio-economic, health and environmental impacts. This study focuses on a recent FD that began in the cool season of
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Flash droughts (FDs) are natural disasters that strike suddenly and intensify quickly. They occur almost anywhere, anytime of the year, and can have severe socio-economic, health and environmental impacts. This study focuses on a recent FD that began in the cool season of the Upper Hunter region of Eastern Australia, an important energy and agricultural local and global exporter that is both flood- and drought-prone. Here, the authors investigate the FD that started abruptly in May 2023 and extended to October 2023. The FD followed floods in November 2021 and much above-average May–October 2022 rainfall. Eight machine learning (ML) regression techniques were applied to the 60 May–October periods from 1963–2022, using a rolling windows attribution search from 45 possible climate drivers, both individually and in combination. The six most prominent climate drivers, and likely predictors, provide an understanding of the major contributors to the FD. Next, the 1963–2022 data were divided into two shorter timespans, 1963–1992 and 1993–2022, generally accepted as representing the early and accelerated global warming periods, respectively. The key attributes were markedly different for the two timespans. These differences are readily explained by the impacts of global warming on hemispheric and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Addressing Climate Change with Artificial Intelligence Methods)
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